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Prediction for CME (2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-04-13T08:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/38357/-1
CME Note: A southeastern halo with a very complex system of several fronts that seem to be moving/expanding in unison. It is difficult to differentiate the bulk vs. shock components of the CME. There seems to be the more dense more southern part to the SW and also a fainter more 'halo' front. The source is a filament erupting starting 2025-04-13T05:00ZZ, stretching from S30E01 to S15W25 as seen in SDO AIA 304 (with more minor dimming reaching S01W30 as seen in SDO AIA 193), and centered ~S18W15. The arrival signature is characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 6nT at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to 17nT at 16:38Z and 27 nT by 18:24Z. Two subsequent increases in solar wind speed is observed, increasing from 400 km/s at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to ~480 km/s at 16:37Z and later an increase from 475 km/s to 600 km/s starting at 19:40Z, with density increasing to 35 p/cc at this time as well. This signature is likely associated with the arrival of CME: 2025-04-13T08:00Z and CME: 2025-04-13T08:12Z, with possible influence from the arrival of CME: 2025-04-12T00:48Z, CME: 2025-04-13T00:12Z and CME: 2025-04-13T07:48Z. Magnetic field components become more stable over time after 2025-04-16T02:00Z and by 2025-04-16T10:00Z become very smooth with B_z oriented in the negative sector.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-04-15T16:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-04-16T09:38Z (-3.08h, +2.26h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 100.0%
Prediction Method: ELEvoHI
Prediction Method Note:

HI kinematics derived from Beacon2Science data product from the Austrian Space Weather Office (ASWO) -> see https://helioforecast.space/cme.
Direction of motion from FPF fitting: 39 (+/-10) deg from STEREO-A, i.e. W4 deg from Earth.
Width in ecliptic plane is varied between 45 and 65 deg.

No coronagraph data used.


------ELEvoHI ensemble modelling------

       ========
        L1
       --------
        Arrival Probability:  100 %
        Deterministic Arrival Time [UT]:  2025-04-16 09:38 +/- 2.67  hours
        Mean Arrival Time [UT]:  2025-04-16 09:13 +/- 2.67  hours
        Median Arrival Time [UT]:  2025-04-16 09:48 +/- 2.67  hours
        Mean Arrival Speed:  516 +/- 14 km/s
       --------

Lead Time: 8.62 hour(s)
Difference: -17.03 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tanja Amerstorfer (ASWO) on 2025-04-15T07:59Z

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